A majority of the 1,251 Americans surveyed in a new poll from The Washington Post and the University of Maryland’s Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement (CDCE) are on the same page about some proposals that President-elect Donald Trump first espoused on the campaign trail.
With a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, the Dec. 5-9, 2024 poll found that the majority of Americans oppose the Trump administration using the U.S. military to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants (54%), having the Justice Department investigate Trump's political rivals (60%) and issuing pardons for people convicted of crimes related to the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot (66%). The poll also found most oppose two other possible policies which Trump has not specifically endorsed: having police use force to stop anti-Trump protests (72%), and putting reporters in jail for writing stories Trump dislikes (88%).
The majority also said that Trump won the election legitimately this year (79%). Fewer than half of Republicans in this poll (41%) accept the legitimacy of Biden’s 2020 victory, but this is notably up from the 31% of Republicans who said the same one year ago.
When asked what would happen if Trump tried to secure total power over the country and “rule as a dictator,” the majority of Americans (71%) said that Congress, the Supreme Court or military leaders would block Trump from trying to do so. But, Americans showed some signs of disagreement in answering whether they thought Trump’s behavior as president would be dictator-like this time around: About 4 in 10 said that they didn’t think he would behave like a dictator, while another 4 in 10 said they thought he would, and about 2 in 10 said they are not sure.
“Surprisingly, despite eroding trust in institutions, Americans believe those same institutions would stop Trump if he overreached. It’s a fascinating paradox of disillusionment and faith in the system,” said Alex Flores, a CDCE faculty fellow and assistant professor in the Department of Government and Politics, who contributed to the poll.
Americans were also split on what another Trump presidency means for the country. Twenty-nine percent said that Trump’s win is “a crisis for the country,” and 19% that it is “a setback for the country, but not a crisis.” Compared to the 48% of respondents who expressed a negative view in answering that poll question, an even 50% shared the opposite outlook, with 28% saying Trump’s win is “great for the country,” and 22% saying that it is “good for the country, but not great.”
When broken down by political party, the poll also found that Republicans were far more supportive of the policies that the majority of the respondents collectively opposed. Most notably, 77% of Republicans supported the idea of the Trump administration using the armed forces to carry out mass deportations (compared to 13% of Democrats), and 60% of Republicans supported Trump-issued pardons for Jan. 6, 2021 rioters (compared to 10% of Democrats).
Nearly 6 in 10 Republicans supported the Justice Department investigating the President-elect’s rivals, a view shared by 27% of Democrats.
“We knew this would be a close election, but the vote is a blunt instrument—it doesn’t show intensity. These findings show how intensely we are divided,” concluded Michael Hanmer, CDCE director and GVPT professor.
